Jason Carey, Senior Director of Medical Affairs at SAGA Diagnostics, shared a post on LinkedIn:
“The NHS-Galleri Trial “Missed” Its Primary Endpoint.
But that headline doesn’t tell the full story.
The 140,000-patient NHS-Galleri trial evaluating GRAIL’s multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test did not show a statistically significant reduction in Stage III–IV cancers.
A favorable trend? Yes.
Statistically significant? No.
And that’s where most coverage stopped.
What’s Getting Less Attention:
- 4x higher cancer detection rate vs. standard-of-care screening
- Reduction in Stage IV cancers
- Increase in Stage I–II diagnoses in high-mortality cancers
- Detection in cancers with no screening options:
- Ovarian
- Pancreatic
- Liver
- Head & Neck
- Esophageal
- Lung
- Stomach
Let’s also remember:
Current guidelines screen for only 5 cancers
(Breast, Colon, Lung, Cervix, Prostate)
This trial evaluated something unprecedented:
A single blood draw screening for dozens of cancers at a population level.
That has never been done before.
The Real Debate Isn’t “Does the Science Work?”
It’s:
- • Is stage shift enough as a surrogate endpoint?
- • Do we wait 8–10+ years for overall survival?
- • What threshold defines “good enough” in population screening?
- • Will reimbursement determine adoption more than data?
Because feasibility and payer adoption are two very different hurdles.
We still need the full dataset (ASCO should provide clarity).
Until then:
Thoughtful interpretation > hot takes.
Stage shift was always a surrogate for survival.
The survival readout will take a decade.
But make no mistake — This trial represents a historic moment in blood-based population cancer screening.
The conversation is just beginning.”
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