Kefah Mokbel, Professor of Medicine at Cardiff University School of Medicine, shared on LinkedIn:
“How accurately can circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) surveillance detect recurrence after surgery for HR-positive, HER2-negative early breast cancer?
Delighted to share our new diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis, now available as a preprint and submitted to Cancers.
Across nine studies involving 1,294 patients and 137 documented recurrences, we found:
- Pooled sensitivity: 86.1% (95% CI 79.7–93.6)
- Pooled specificity: 93.0% (95% CI 87.8–96.5)
- Across seven studies reporting subtype-specific lead times, the median of study medians was 13 months.
These findings support the potential of serial ctDNA surveillance to identify recurrence before it becomes clinically apparent and help identify candidates for interception trials.
A key question remains: does acting on ctDNA detection improve patient outcomes? Earlier detection alone does not establish clinical benefit; prospective intervention trials are needed.
The estimates also depend on the assays, sampling schedules and follow-up used, with specificity measured against recurrence status at each study’s reporting cutoff.
This preprint has not yet been peer reviewed. We welcome feedback and discussion from colleagues.”
Title: Accuracy of Postoperative Circulating Tumour DNA Surveillance in Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER2-Negative Early Breast Cancer: A Diagnostic Accuracy Meta-Analysis
Authors: Kinan Mokbel, Humaid O. Al-Shamsi, Kefah Mokbel
You can also read:
- Kefah Mokbel: Can ctDNA and MRI-Guided Assessment Transform Neoadjuvant Breast Cancer Treatment
- PHERGain Five-Year Results: Chemotherapy-Free HER2-Positive Breast Cancer Treatment Shows Durable Outcomes as ctDNA Refines Risk Assessment
