The report prepared for the pharmaceutical association Pro Generika e. V. asks three blunt questions: (1) how Germany and the EU stack up against China in developing and producing different medicine groups; (2) whether China could leverage supply dependencies for political aims; and (3) what all this means for future R&D, manufacturing, and day-to-day security of supply in Europe. It proceeds by examining Europe’s and Germany’s pharma base, mapping concrete dependencies on Chinese inputs, and then sketching policy responses. The recommendations are explicitly targeted at German and EU decision-makers.
First take: at the EU-level, China looks small—until you zoom in
Looking at the European Union’s total imports of “pharmaceutical pre-products” (inputs used by EU pharma manufacturers), China accounts for just 1.6% (2022)—barely changed from 1.4% in 2010. Much larger shares come from within Europe, plus Ireland, Switzerland, and the United States. This top-down lens can be misleading, though: it reflects the EU’s specialization in innovative, complex products (often sourced inside Europe), which masks concentrated exposure in specific chemical inputs tied to generic drugs.
Why generics make this a system-wide issue
Generics aren’t a side story—they’re the backbone of Germany’s routine care. Roughly 80% of prescribed daily doses are generics, yet they make up only 7.1% of net drug spending (2022). In other words, if the inputs behind generics wobble, the whole delivery system can feel it.
The dependence hotspots: vitamins and antibiotics
When the report drills into German imports of “pharmaceutical basic substances” (a customs-based grouping of key inputs) for 2024, two clusters stand out:
- Vitamins: About 14% of Germany’s total import volume of basic substances are vitamins—and a striking 81% of that vitamin volume comes from China. The single biggest items, vitamins C and E, each account for about 5% of all basic-substance imports; 93% of vitamin C and 89% of vitamin E imports come from China. For most other vitamins in the group, China is also the number one supplier, typically covering at least 44% of German imports.
- Antibiotics (basic substances): Here the volumes are smaller in absolute terms (about 0.4% of total basic-substance imports), but the concentration is extreme: 76% of Germany’s imported antibiotic basic-substance volume is supplied by China; for individual substances in this group, China’s share ranges from 66% up to 99%. (Note: this section focuses on inputs, not finished antibiotic medicines.)
The study underscores that the most China-exposed items are chemically defined inputs used to make generics—e.g., antibiotics, certain alkaloids, heterocyclic compounds, and some hormones. By contrast, inputs assigned to “pharmaceutical products” (rather than to organic chemicals) skew more toward Europe and the U.S., and they’re sourced from a wider set of countries.
Germany’s import map is broad but pocketed with concentration
For many chemical inputs, Germany does buy from multiple countries—but the breadth can quickly narrow in certain commodity-like segments. Vitamins are an outlier with a relatively large number of potential source countries on paper, yet actual volumes overwhelmingly come from China, as shown above. This pattern repeats in several chemical sub-groups where the number-one supplier dominates practical supply.
Price matters—and China has it
The report notes estimates that APIs produced in China can be up to 40% cheaper than European equivalents. That cost gap naturally channels procurement toward Chinese plants, reinforcing concentration in precisely those items most critical for high-volume generic manufacturing.
The EU picture beyond pharma: chemistry tells a different story
While China’s slice of EU “pharma pre-products” is tiny in aggregate, its role is larger in chemical pre-products, which are upstream to many of the basic substances used for medicines. In 2022, China ranked as a leading non-EU source of chemical inputs; the EU’s growing focus on innovative biopharma helps explain why the bloc sources many pharma pre-products domestically while relying more on China for chemical inputs.
The systemic risk: a small hinge that swings a big door
Europe’s supply stability can look comfortable at 30,000 feet—most pharma pre-products arrive from within Europe. But Germany’s heavy day-to-day dependence on generics (80% of doses) means bottlenecks in specific chemical inputs can still translate into broad clinical disruptions, even if the overall import stats seem benign. The study’s granularity shows why aggregate numbers understate the risk: a handful of vitamin and antibiotic inputs dominate vulnerability maps.
China’s industrial climb—and why that matters for leverage
The report situates these patterns in a broader industrial context: China has been deliberately moving up the pharma value chain, with policies favoring domestic component shares and import substitution in key technologies. When paired with Europe’s procurement incentives that prioritize price in mature molecules, the result is predictable: structural reliance on Chinese plants for numerous chemical inputs, especially those feeding the generic engine. (This industrial-policy arc is woven through the comparative chapters on China’s rise as a global pharma hub and the scenarios that could trigger stress for Europe.)
So, how “dependent” is Germany—really?
Three takeaways sum up the level and nature of dependence:
- Not across the board, but intense where it counts: At the EU level, China’s role in pharma pre-products looks small (1.6%). But Germany’s import pattern for specific basic substances—especially vitamins and antibiotic inputs—shows marked, sometimes overwhelming, concentration on China.
- Generics amplify the stakes: Because generics account for four-fifths of doses, shortfalls in these inputs can ripple quickly through routine care—despite generics representing a small share of total spending.
- Cost pulls supply chains toward China: A sustained cost advantage—up to 40% on some APIs—has reinforced sourcing patterns that are hard to unwind without policy change.
What the study implies for policy (the direction of travel)
While the detailed recommendations are laid out later in the report, the analytical spine points to familiar but urgent levers: diversify sourcing in the most exposed chemical classes; calibrate incentives so that resilience (not just price) drives procurement; rebuild or anchor selected capacities in Europe where concentration is riskiest; and improve transparency at substance level so aggregated import shares don’t hide real bottlenecks. The study’s structure explicitly culminates in targeted recommendations to German and EU policymakers on these fronts.
The Key Takeaway
Germany’s pharma dependence on China isn’t a blanket story—it’s a pinpoint story. On the surface, EU import stats say “no big deal.” But zoom into the inputs behind everyday generic medicines, and a handful of categories—vitamins and antibiotic basic substances above all—are highly China-centric. In a health system where generics carry most of the clinical load, those narrow hinges can swing very large doors. Addressing them means reshaping incentives and supply chains at the substance level, not just celebrating comfortable aggregates.