Morgan Stanley’s Top Oncology Catalysts for 2025

Morgan Stanley has outlined a number of crucial oncology trial readouts and developments expected in 2025, marking the year as one of significant advancements in cancer treatment.

The firm highlights two major categories of innovation that are anticipated to dominate the biotech landscape: individualized cancer vaccines and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs).

Both of these areas are seen as having the potential to dramatically improve treatment outcomes for various cancers.

Among the most notable developments, Moderna (MRNA), in collaboration with Merck (MRK), is waiting for a Phase 2 interim readout for its individualized melanoma vaccine, mRNA-4157 (V940).

This vaccine, which uses mRNA technology, has garnered significant attention and could represent a major breakthrough in personalized cancer treatment.

The interim results are expected by the end of 2025 or in early 2026, with investors and analysts closely watching for signs of its efficacy.

BioNTech (BNTX), Moderna’s German rival, is also focused on cancer vaccines.

The company is preparing to release Phase 2 trial data for its colorectal cancer vaccine, BNT122, as well as additional data from its studies in metastatic melanoma, which could provide important insights into the vaccine’s broader potential.

In the ADC space, AstraZeneca (AZN), along with its Japanese partner Daiichi Sankyo (DSNKY), is poised to report Phase 3 data for their drug, Datopotamab Deruxtecan (Dato-DXd), in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The AVANZAR trial is one of the most anticipated in oncology for 2025, as it could potentially establish Dato-DXd as a key treatment option for NSCLC patients.

In addition, Gilead (GILD) and Pfizer (PFE) are both set to report important updates from their ADC trials. Gilead’s combination of Trodelvy and Pembro is expected to present Phase 3 data in the EVOKE-03 study, while Pfizer will showcase early-stage trial results for its ADC, sigvotatug vedotin, at an upcoming medical conference.

Summit Therapeutics (SMMT), which is developing a PD(L)1xVEGF bispecific antibody, ivonescimab, in collaboration with Chinese biotech Akeso (AKESF), is another company to watch in 2025. Summit is awaiting critical trial data from its HARMONi and HARMONi-2 studies, which are focused on the drug’s efficacy in lung cancer.

If successful, ivonescimab could compete with established treatments from companies like Merck, making Summit a potential player in the PD(L)1 space.

BioNTech is also working on a PD(L)1xVEGF bispecific, BNT327, which is expected to show mid-stage data in small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in 2025.

Other noteworthy trial readouts include Regeneron (REGN), which is awaiting Phase 3 data for its combination of LAG-3 inhibitor fianlimab and PD-1 inhibitor Libtayo in first-line metastatic melanoma. Arvinas (ARVN) and Pfizer are collaborating on Vepdegestrant, a protein degrader in a Phase 3 trial for ER+/HER2- breast cancer, with results expected from the VERITAC-2 trial in early 2025.

Additionally, Merck (MRK) is poised to provide Phase 3 data for its anti-TIGIT drug, MK-7684A, in combination with PD-1 therapy for NSCLC and small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), while Gilead and Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) are expecting mid-stage and late-stage readouts for their anti-TIGIT therapy, domvanalimab, in gastroesophageal and gastrointestinal cancers.

With so many important trial outcomes expected across different cancer types and treatment modalities, 2025 is shaping up to be a highly consequential year for the oncology field.

Investors, clinicians, and patients alike will be looking to these trials for clues about the future of cancer immunotherapy and targeted treatments. As these companies approach critical milestones, the coming months could dramatically alter the landscape of oncology therapeutics.