Roupen Odabashian, Oncologist at Abbotsford Regional Hospital and Cancer Centre, Founder of MeDucation AI, and Host of the OncoDaily and Delta podcasts, shared on LinkedIn:
“Frontier agents now complete about two hours of software work at a 50 percent success rate. Push past four hours and success falls under 10 percent. Under four minutes, they are near perfect.
The doubling time on that horizon has gone from every seven months to roughly every four.
Straight-line that and you get an eight hour workday in 2027 and a full week in 2028, which is exactly the kind of extrapolation that deserves suspicion. But the shape is worth taking seriously even if the dates slip badly.
Translate it to medicine. Almost everything an agent is being sold into today is a sub-four-minute task. Summarize this note. Draft this letter. Pull this lab trend. Those are solved, and the vendors know it, which is why the demos look so good.
The work that actually consumes an oncologist is long-horizon. Following a patient across six months of therapy, catching that the imaging was never ordered, noticing that the trial they were eligible for opened three weeks ago. Those are four-hour-plus tasks by this measure, sitting in the region where reliability collapses.
So the interesting question is not whether agents get better. It’s whether clinical work decomposes into short tasks, or whether the continuity is the job. I have a hope that I will have AI agent collegue that will help me seeing more patients”
Other articles featuring Roupen Odabashian on OncoDaily.