Olubukola Ayodele: Time to Recurrence is as Important as Tumor Biology
Olubukola Ayodele/LinkedIn

Olubukola Ayodele: Time to Recurrence is as Important as Tumor Biology

Olubukola Ayodele, Breast Cancer Lead at University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, shared a post on LinkedIn:

“Hormonal Resistance in HR+ Metastatic Breast Cancer in 2026

As oncologists, who treat Hormone Receptor positive (HR+) metastatic breast cancer, we often tend to ask about tumor mutations. However in the clinic, an increasing relevant question now is “when did the disease relapse?”

Because today: Time to recurrence is as important as tumor biology

Early Relapse (≤ 6 months)
After CDK4/6 inhibitor plus AI

This is true endocrine resistance and often, aggressive biology.

Reusing endocrine therapy alone often leads to low yield.

What to do?

  • Re-biopsy + consider ctDNA early
  • Reassess ER/HER2 status and emerging mutations
  • If actionable mutation, then consider targeted therapy in selected patients
  • If rapidly progressive or symptomatic, then consider chemotherapy

*Switching CDK4/6 inhibitor could be considered

*ADCs (e.g. Trastuzumab deruxtecan)
may be considered in selected patients, but are not yet routine first-line in this setting

Intermediate Relapse (>6–12 months)

Mixed biology. Not fully resistant… not fully sensitive.

What to do?
Test for:

  • PIK3CA
  • AKT1 / PTEN
  • BRCA

 

  • Capivasertib + Fulvestrant (CAPItello-291)

* PARP inhibitors if germline mutations

*Where access is limited, everolimus-based therapy still has a role.

It’s about enhancing endocrine therapy via pathway targeting.

Late Relapse (>12 months)

Endocrine-sensitive disease. Especially after prolonged AI exposure

Think ESR1 mutations

Options:

  • Elacestrant (EMERALD)
  • Imlunestrant (EMBER-3)
  • Vepdegestrant (VERITAC-2)

Combination strategies are evolving and may further improve outcomes.

PIK3CA-mutated disease where progression occurs during/within 12 months of adjuvant endocrine therapy

  • Triplet with Inavolisib based therapy. (INAVO120)

This space is evolving, with sequencing still being defined

ADCs: Post endocrine therapy

A new therapeutic space

*HER2-low / ultralow disease

  • Trastuzumab deruxtecan (DESTINY-Breast04 and 06)

*Sacituzumab Govitecan (TROPiCS – 02 and ASCENT -07)

*Dato-Dxd (TROPION-Breast01)

ADCs are moving earlier, guided not just by HER2 status, but by pace of disease and clinical burden

The real shift is that we are no longer asking: what comes after CDK4/6 inhibitors?

We are now asking:

  • How fast did the disease relapse?
  • What is driving it biologically?
  • Can we delay chemotherapy?
  • Can ctDNA help us act earlier?

The future of HR+ metastatic breast cancer is time-dependent, biomarker-driven and deeply personalised.

If you ignore time to recurrence, you are only seeing half the disease.

We are sequencing biology over time.”

Olubukola Ayodele

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