Ahmet Dirican: Do ctDNA-Based Multicancer Early Detection Tests Lead to Overdiagnosis?
Ahmet Dirican/ LinkedIn

Ahmet Dirican: Do ctDNA-Based Multicancer Early Detection Tests Lead to Overdiagnosis?

Ahmet Dirican, Professor of Medical Oncology at Medicana International İzmir Hospital, shared a post on X:

“Do ctDNA-based multicancer early detection (MCED) tests lead to overdiagnosis?

A new 5-year analysis from the case-control Circulating Cell-free Genome Atlas (CCGA) study explored the prognostic meaning of MCED results.

(CSD = cancer signal detected ; NCSD = no cancer signal detected)

Key findings:

  • CSD: 5-yr OS 43% vs 40% in matched SEER population
  • NCSD: 5-yr OS 88% vs 81% in SEER

Importantly, early-stage CSD cancers had survival similar to the matched SEER population, suggesting MCED is unlikely to simply detect indolent tumors (i.e., limited evidence of overdiagnosis).

But a critical clinical question remains:

If early-stage cancers are CSD-positive (ctDNA detected), should they be managed differently?”

Title: Prognostic Significance of Blood-Based Multicancer Detection in Circulating Tumor DNA: Five-Year Outcomes Analysis

Auhtors: Charles Swanton, Alan Bryce, Allen L. Cohn, Matthew Margolis, Earl Hubbell, April Sagan, Oliver Venn, and Michael Seiden.

Read the article

Ahmet Dirican

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Medically reviewed Mar 19, 2026 by Mariam Khachatryan, MD